Policy and Resources says new financial modelling reduces the amount a consumption tax could generate by £3M.
One week away from the resumed tax reform debate, P&R has released a new set of figures showing a reduction in government takings from GST.
The senior committee says new modelling, using more recent household spending figures, drops the GST element by £3M and the overall tax take is now estimated to be £36M.
This is because in the years after the pandemic and the Ukraine war people spent less on consumables and had to pay higher prices for essentials like heating. Inflation was also high.
Some areas of revenue are now estimated to bring in less - including GST from visitors, which is down from £4.7M to £3.5M, and changes to social security contributions which are down £0.4M.
When added to the planned government savings of £20M a year, the States would be better off under GST by £56M a year.
The reduction in the take of the tax package comes after a flurry of amendments to the policy letter from deputies, including a bid to cease debate altogether until a new Head of Finance gets to grips with the States' financial statements.
Deputies will meet on 30 September with just under 60 amendments so far to debate.
One consolation could come in the shape of a Fairtrade tea break on the first lunchtime of the September meeting, organised to celebrate 20 years of Guernsey being a Fairtrade island.
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